As the calendar year edges to a close, it feels like awards season is just beginning. It’s not, of course — we’ve already endured weeks of false starts, watching presumed front-runners fall by the wayside and unexpected discoveries emerge. But as the films are seen and critics and audiences have their say, the best picture race seems to be narrowing down considerably. Most recently, both the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards unveiled their nominations and while neither voting body has any overlap with Academy members, they have proven to be a fairly reliable bellwether in the past. We can also look to the previous awards histories of the filmmakers involved to often get a feel for the landscape. With those factors in mind, here’s where 15 best picture hopefuls are currently standing in the race.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Stats Directed by three-time Oscar winner (and seven-time nominee) James Cameron; both its predecessors were nominated for best picture.
The latest Two Golden Globe and one Critics Choice nom — but not in best picture. But word of mouth is on par with the previous sequel, 2023’s “Avatar: The Way of Water,” and it will be a surefire hit at the box office.
Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague
Stats Directed by five-time Oscar nominee Richard Linklater.
The latest Both films earned surprise best picture noms from the Golden Globes, beating out the likes of “Wicked: For Good.” “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke was also recognized by both Globes and Critics’ Choice voters and seems increasingly assured his first best actor Oscar nomination. And both are about the industry — “Blue Moon” features Hawke as lyricist Lorenz Hart while “Nouvelle Vague” is about the making of Jean-Luc Godard’s “Breathless.” Also, Linklater is a national treasure not to be underestimated.
Bugonia
Stats Directed by five-time Oscar nominee Yorgos Lanthimos.
The latest There is nothing else in the race like this sci-fi mindbender in the race, which has earned three Golden Globe and three Critics Choice noms. Actors Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons are familiar faces on awards stages, while the film itself keeps quietly and consistently showing up.
Frankenstein
Stats Written and directed by three-time Oscar winner Guillermo del Toro.
The latest Five Golden Globe and 11 Critics Choice noms. Shame on anyone who initially underestimated the chances of this adaptation of the Mary Shelley novel. Has massive below-the-line support for its stunning crafts and the actors’ branch as well, especially for Jacob Elordi as the Creature.
Hamnet
Stats Co-written and directed by two-time Oscar winner (and four-time nominee) Chloé Zhao, only the second woman to ever win best director.
The latest With six Golden Globe and 11 Critics Choice noms, “Hamnet” is a slam-dunk for picture and director Oscar noms. It also won the coveted Audience Award at TIFF, a strong indicator of a best picture nom. Zhao adapted Maggie O’Farrell’s novel, about the early years of William Shakespeare and his family, with the author. Actors Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal are also looking locked for noms.
It Was Just an Accident
Stats Written and directed by acclaimed Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi, who won the Palme d’Or at this year’s Cannes
Film Festival.
The latest Four Golden Globe and two Critics Choice noms, including nods for picture, director and screenplay at the Globes. A timely tale about Iranian political prisoners who seek to take revenge on their suspected jailhouse abuser, the script has been earning accolades this season. The story behind the film (it was shot in secret without permission from Iranian authorities and Panahi has been given a prison sentence on charges of creating propaganda against the political system) is equally fascinating.
Jay Kelly
Stats Co-written and directed by four-time Oscar nominee Noah Baumbach.
The latest Two Golden Globe and four Critics Choice noms. While it missed a Golden Globe nom for best picture — musical or comedy, stars George Clooney and Adam Sandler were recognized. Also, it’s a movie about the movie business and Academy voters love that.
No Other Choice
Stats Co-written and directed by esteemed South Korean director Park Chan-wook.
The latest One Golden Globe and two Critics Choice noms. The pitch black comedy about the lengths one man goes to secure a new job broke into a competitive best picture lineup at the Globes, as did star Lee Byung-hun. A sure thing for an international film Oscar nom, it’s also proving to be a big crowd-pleaser.
One Battle After Another
Stats Written and directed by 11-time Oscar nominee Paul Thomas Anderson.
The latest As sure as a sure thing can get. It earned nine Golden Globe and 14 Critics Choice noms and is picking up wins from critics’ groups all over the country. Looking at a minimum of four acting nominations, maybe more. Critics and audiences have responded rhapsodically and Anderson is not only overdue,
but deserving.
Marty Supreme
Stats Co-written and directed by award-
winning — but never Oscar-nominated — Josh Safdie.
The latest Three Golden Globe and eight Critics Choice Award noms and the movie has yet to open, but is tracking well. A drama that pleases arthouse crowds and the general public alike, “Marty Supreme” should propel Timothée Chalamet to another best actor nomination for his titular ping-pong prodigy.
The Secret Agent
Stats Directed by Brazilian filmmaker
Kleber Mendonça Filho, who won best director at this year’s Cannes Film Festival.
The latest Three Golden Globe and two Critics Choice noms. Another film that overperformed at the Globes with a best picture — drama nom. Star Wagner Moura won best actor at Cannes and has been breaking into crowded actor awards lineups in the states as well.
Sentimental Value
Stats Co-written by Oscar nominees Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, directed by Trier, who won the Gran Prix at this year’s Cannes Film Festival.
The latest Seven Golden Globe and seven Critics Choice noms — a juggernaut with top nominations all season, including recognition for four cast members. Though it centers on a family in the movie biz (always a bonus to voters), the relationship dynamics have proven universally relatable.
Sinners
Stats Written and directed by two-time Oscar nominee Ryan Coogler.
The latest Seven Golden Globe and 17 — yes, 17 — Critics Choice noms. Even those who thought the period vampire pic would only resonate with audiences and not voters have to acknowledge it’s a genuine contender. And though he’s been recognized as a producer, Coogler has never been Oscar-nominated in either writing or directing. That’s about to change.
Train Dreams
Stats Co-written by Oscar nominees
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; directed by Bentley.
The latest Two Golden Globe and five Critics
Choice noms. It missed in best picture at the Globes, but the drama category is competitive, and star Joel Edgerton was recognized. Bentley and Kwedar were previously Oscar-nominated for adapted screenplay for “Sing Sing,” and this adaption of Denis Johnson’s novella puts them back in the writing race. The film been slowly building positive word-of-mouth since its Sundance premiere and might just qualify as the film no
one hates.
Wicked: For Good
Stats The follow-up to last year’s blockbuster, which landed 10 Oscar nominations, winning two.
The latest Missed a Golden Globe best picture — musical or comedy nomination, which should have been a slam-dunk, but still earned three nods and seven Critics Choice noms. Plus, it’s both a box office and cultural phenom. Oscar noms are likely guaranteed for stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande and in many crafts categories.
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