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Bill Connelly
Wimbledon’s arrival on the tennis calendar means very different things on the men’s and women’s sides of the tour.
For the men, Wimbledon represents probably the most predictable of all Slams. In the past 20 years, only 12 players have reached the gentlemen’s final. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic accounted for more than half of those 40 spots in the finals by themselves, and Djokovic has made the past six finals, winning four and losing the past two to Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz, meanwhile, has won the past four Slams on natural surfaces (clay or grass). If you just want to pencil him into the finals already, it’s rational.
On the women’s side, however, things are far different. Despite a pretty clear hierarchy forming atop the women’s tour — Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff have won nine of the past 10 Slams on hard courts or clay — seven different women have won the past seven Wimbledon titles. The past four years at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club have given us 13 different semifinalists. Grass is the ultimate sign of greatness for the men and a random-outcome generator for the women.
Therefore, the 2025 edition of this storied tournament gives us quite a few pretty obvious storylines. Alcaraz, Djokovic and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner are the runaway favorites in the men’s draw, but with both Sabalenka and Gauff facing tough draws and the randomness grass provides, it’s anyone’s guess how the women’s tournament will play out. Let’s walk through the players most likely to make big runs and/or define the 2025 Wimbledon fortnight.
The favorites
Carlos Alcaraz
ESPN BET odds: +125 | Tennis Abstract odds: 54.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Holger Rune (quarterfinals)
Fresh off of a win in the best Slam final of the 2020s — his epic comeback over Sinner at the French Open — Alcaraz cruised through his lone grass-court tuneup, beating Jiri Lehecka to win at Queen’s Club a week ago.
It’s unfair to compare any younger player to the standard of the Big Three (Federer, Djokovic, Rafael Nadal), who each won at least 20 Slams and who genuinely might be the three best men’s players of all time. But Alcaraz is making it impossible to avoid those comparisons. Nadal won four Slam titles before his 22nd birthday, while Djokovic and Federer had each won only one. Alcaraz won his fifth a month after turning 22. He doesn’t boast Sinner’s relentless consistency, but as he proved in the later sets against Sinner in Paris, his A-game and raw upside are unmatched. His ability to adapt and improvise in unique conditions could make him the favorite of every French Open or Wimbledon he enters for the next decade.
Jannik Sinner
ESPN BET odds: +190 | Tennis Abstract odds: 6.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Lorenzo Musetti (quarterfinals)
Since mid-August, Sinner is 48-4 — 0-3 against Alcaraz and 48-1 against everyone else. He lost in three sets to the torrid Alexander Bublik a week ago in Halle, Germany, and is far less proven on grass than other surfaces, though he reached the Wimbledon semis in 2023. Sinner is comfortably the best hard-court player in the world — he swept Djokovic on the way to the French Open final — and he just seems to get better in every tournament he enters.
Sinner’s draw is a challenge. Even before potentially meeting Djokovic on the GOAT’s best surface in the semis (and, presumably, Alcaraz in the final), he could face 2021 semifinalist Denis Shapovalov in the third round, 2024 quarterfinalist Tommy Paul or 2014 semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round and 2024 semifinalist Lorenzo Musetti or big-serving Ben Shelton in the quarterfinals. He won’t have much time to find fifth gear, but it’s hard to pick against him making a big run.
Aryna Sabalenka
ESPN BET odds: +240 | Tennis Abstract odds: 19.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Madison Keys or No. 9 Paula Badosa (quarterfinals)
The only thing Sabalenka has lacked in 2025 is a great final act. She has reached the finals in seven of 10 tournaments she has entered, but has lost four of her past six finals, including the Australian Open against Keys and the French Open against Gauff. (And despite the extra practice, her post-final concession speeches could use a bit more work.)
She has reached the semis in each of her past two Wimbledon trips, and in a potential finals preview, she outlasted Elena Rybakina in Berlin a week ago, saving four match points in the final-set tiebreaker. Like Sinner, she’ll have to earn this one: Her draw could feature either 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova, local favorite Emma Raducanu or Nottingham champion McCartney Kessler in the third round, two-time semifinalist Elina Svitolina in the fourth, Keys in the quarterfinals and 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini in the semis. That’s a rough road, but Sabalenka is the surest thing on the women’s tour.
Novak Djokovic
ESPN BET odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract odds: 21.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (quarterfinals)
In case we needed a reminder that Djokovic’s standards remain ridiculously high, we got it in Paris. In a 2025 season that has featured more nagging injuries and, at one point, his first three-match losing streak in over seven years, his run to the French Open semifinals was undeniably encouraging. He won four straight-set matches in a row — he didn’t have to play his way into form — and took down Alexander Zverev in four sets before falling to Sinner in the semis. And even against Sinner, he never lost a set by multiple breaks (6-4, 7-5, 7-6). But he was particularly emotional as he left the court and acknowledged afterward that he might be closer than ever to retirement. We all are, I guess.
Emptying his bag of tricks but not being able to steal even a set from Sinner evidently had him feeling awfully mortal. Getting smoked by Alcaraz in last year’s Wimbledon final (6-2, 6-2, 7-6) probably did too. But if the 24-time Slam champion is going to reach No. 25, it’s probably going to be at the All England Club, where he has lifted the trophy seven times and has lost only twice since 2017. His draw is tricky — No. 11 Alex De Minaur, a 2024 quarterfinalist, could await in the fourth round, followed by Indian Wells champion Draper (who took a set from Djokovic at Wimbledon back in 2021) in the quarterfinals. But Djokovic wouldn’t need many breaks to make it deep into the second week.
Coco Gauff
ESPN BET odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract odds: 8.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Iga Swiatek (quarterfinals)
Still only 21 years old, Gauff has already put together a Hall of Fame resume, with two Slam titles, a WTA Finals win in 2024, two other 1000-level titles and a Slam doubles title as well. And she has done this despite struggling with her serve and her forehand at times — she has clear room for improvement moving forward. Yikes.
She’s still waiting on a Wimbledon breakthrough, though. Her 2019 upset of five-time champion Venus Williams there, as a 15-year-old, was the first big moment of her career, but she has won just eight total matches in her past four Wimbledon trips. And like Sabalenka, the draw did her few favors: Gauff could face a resurgent Sofia Kenin in the third round — Kenin upset her in the first round here two years ago — before meeting Swiatek or Rybakina in the quarterfinals. But even at this early stage in her career, Gauff has proved too much not to be a top-tier favorite.
Elena Rybakina
ESPN BET odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract odds: 5.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Iga Swiatek (fourth round)
Rybakina is the proverbial big-game player. Starting with her surprising run to the 2022 Wimbledon title, she’s 12-8 in her past 20 semifinals and 7-5 in her past 12 finals. She has won four of her past seven against Sabalenka, and has split her past eight against Swiatek. Rybakina has dealt with loads of coaching drama over the past year, and has suffered four upset losses against players ranked 80th or worse. But her A-game remains magnificent.
Rybakina has the most effective serve of any top player — she has won 63% of her service points this year, the most of any top-50 player — and over the past three years she’s 16-2 at Wimbledon. She might have to beat Swiatek in the fourth round and Gauff in the quarters, but the betting odds make her a co-favorite with Gauff to reach the finals from the bottom half of the draw.
Only need a few breaks
Iga Swiatek
ESPN BET odds: +850 | Tennis Abstract odds: 8.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Coco Gauff (quarterfinals)
It has been an odd year for the five-time Slam champion, who fell to No. 8 in the WTA rankings before this week’s strong showing at Bad Homburg. (Swiatek will play Jessica Pegula in the finals, and has risen back to fourth.) Swiatek has already lost 10 matches this year — more than she lost in all of 2024 — and failed to win the French Open for the first time since 2021. Her run at Bad Homburg was encouraging, but Wimbledon is the only Slam in which she has never reached at least the semis. With Rybakina and Gauff standing in her way, it will be a surprise if her first semi comes this year.
Jack Draper
ESPN BET odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Novak Djokovic (quarterfinals)
On the one hand, the 23-year-old has enjoyed a breakthrough season, building off of his 2024 US Open semifinal run by storming to the Indian Wells title, reaching two other finals and surging to No. 4 in the world.
On the other hand, he’s 2-3 all time at Wimbledon, his home Slam, and only 20-14 on grass. Draper did beat Alcaraz at Queen’s Club last year, and he made a solid semifinal run there this year, but with smoking-hot Alexander Bublik potentially awaiting in the third round and Djokovic in the quarters, the draw did not do him any favors.
Madison Keys
ESPN BET odds: +1200 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals)
The Australian Open champion reached a career-high No. 5 ranking the week after her 30th birthday, and she’s 11-1 in Slams this season after a French Open quarterfinal run. Keys has reached two Wimbledon quarterfinals and is the projected favorite to reach a quarterfinal against Sabalenka. But she dropped her past two grass-court matches in straight sets against grass-court specialists Tatjana Maria and Marketa Vondrousova.
Marketa Vondrousova
ESPN BET odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (third round)
Vondrousova endured quite the rise-and-fall arc after winning Wimbledon in 2023. She was upset in the first round last year, then missed most of seven months with injury. She lost five of her first 11 matches of 2025, too, but beat Keys, Diana Shnaider, Ons Jabeur and Sabalenka (in straight sets, no less) on the way to the Berlin title on grass. Still ranked only 73rd, Vondrousova drew McCartney Kessler in the first round, potentially followed by Raducanu and Sabalenka from there. That’s a rough draw, but the unorthodox lefty will be a tough out.
Others: Mirra Andreeva (+1200), Qinwen Zheng (+1800), Jasmine Paolini (+2200), Jessica Pegula (+2200), Alexander Zverev (+2500)
They love Wimbledon (and/or grass courts)
Elina Svitolina
ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (fourth round)
The 30-year-old has reestablished a cruising altitude since her post-maternity comeback in 2023, reaching five quarterfinals in her past nine Slams. Svitolina is 9-2 at Wimbledon in that span, too. She is relatively upset-proof at this point — over the past year, she’s 3-7 against top-five opponents but 39-9 (.813 win percentage) against everyone else — and she’s a projected favorite to reach the round of 16 against, most likely, Sabalenka.
ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Daniil Medvedev (fourth round)
We’ve talked a lot about tough draws so far, but Fritz probably liked his draw a good amount. Granted, it features big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round and could present No. 26 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (his semifinal opponent this week at Eastbourne) in the third and Daniil Medvedev in the fourth. But Fritz landed in Alexander Zverev’s quarter, and he’s 5-0 against Zverev over the past year. If Fritz survives tricky early tests, he’s in the right quarter for a big run.
Alexander Bublik
ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (third round)
Evidently, falling out of the ATP top 50 was a wakeup call for the enigmatic Bublik, who won nine of his past 11 matches in clay-court season, then beat four straight top-25 opponents, including Sinner and Medvedev, to win at Halle on grass last week. He is capable of beating, or losing to, anyone in the field, and he could be a major third-round obstacle for Draper in what might be the most interesting potential first-week match in the men’s draw.
ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Emma Navarro (third round)
One of the greatest doubles players of the era (seven Slam doubles titles), Krejcikova is always an unpredictable presence in a singles draw. In her past 12 Slams, she has won only 20 matches, but seven came during last year’s Wimbledon run. She has played only six matches this year due to injury and had to withdraw at Eastbourne this week due to a thigh issue. Her odds of a big run aren’t great, but if she generates any momentum, look out.
Lorenzo Musetti
ESPN BET odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Ben Shelton (fourth round)
It has been a quietly fantastic 52 weeks for the 23-year-old Italian. Musetti has reached the semifinals of two of his past four Slams — Wimbledon last year, French Open this year — and made the semis or better in three straight 1000-level events. In his past five tournaments, he has lost only to Djokovic, Alcaraz or Draper. Landing in Sinner’s quarter wasn’t kind, but Musetti is a projected favorite to reach the quarterfinals, at least.
Others: Daniil Medvedev (2023-24 semifinalist, +3300), Jelena Ostapenko (2024 quarterfinalist, +3300), Jiri Lehecka (+4000), Ons Jabeur (2022-23 finalist, +5000), Emma Navarro (2024 quarterfinalist, +5000), Alex de Minaur (2024 quarterfinalist, +5000), Ekaterina Alexandrova (+5000), Hubert Hurkacz (2021 semifinalist, +6600), Tommy Paul (2024 quarterfinalist, +6600), Donna Vekic (2024 semifinalist, 100-1), Tatjana Maria (2022 semifinalist, 100-1), Denis Shapovalov (2021 semifinalist, 100-1), Grigor Dimitrov (2014 semifinalist, 100-1), Cameron Norrie (2022 semifinalist, 300-1), Lulu Sun (2024 quarterfinalist, 300-1), Marin Cilic (2017 semifinalist, 400-1), Matteo Berrettini (2021 finalist), Petra Kvitova (2011 and 2014 champion)
Waiting for a surge
ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Qinwen Zheng (second round)
In Tennis Abstract’s Elo rankings — which are based on performance quality, not points acquired at tournaments — Naomi Osaka is up to 31st in the world. That’s below her pre-motherhood standards, obviously, but it’s pretty good. But because Slams are worth so many WTA rankings points, and because she can’t get a good Slam draw to save her life, she’s only 56th in the rankings that matter.
In each of her past six Slams, Osaka had to face a top-20 opponent by the second round. She nearly beat Swiatek at the 2024 French Open, then pummeled No. 10 Jelena Ostapenko in the US Open only to run into a torrid former top-10er, Karolina Muchova, in the next round. She topped Muchova at the Australian Open but had to pull out of the next round with injury. She took Paula Badosa deep into the third set at the French Open but lost.
Was her Wimbledon draw any kinder? Not really. She’ll probably have to face No. 5 Qinwen Zheng in the second round, and while she has basically split nine sets all time with Zheng, she lost their only meeting on grass (which has never been her best surface). The hunt for a breakthrough will likely continue into the hard-court season.
Others: Emma Raducanu (+5000), Karolina Muchova (+5000), Holger Rune (+6600)
American sleepers
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jasmine Paolini (fourth round)
After taking most of 2023 off from the tour, Anisimova climbed back into the top 40 in 2024 and has surged in 2025. She scored her first 1000-level title in Doha, and she enters Wimbledon having won nine of her past 11 matches (six of eight on grass). With heavy groundstrokes and an above-average return, she could be a threat in Paolini’s quarter, at least if she survives a tricky first-round matchup with Yulia Putintseva.
Ben Shelton
ESPN BET odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Lorenzo Musetti (fourth round)
It’s easy to think, “Big serve? Good on grass!” But that’s a bit of an outdated impression, and the 22-year-old Shelton has yet to solve the surface: He’s just 8-10 all time on grass, and he enters Wimbledon having lost three matches in a row. Still, a round-of-16 run at Wimbledon in 2024 hints at potential, and a hypothetical fourth-round matchup with Musetti (with the winner facing Sinner) would be absolutely dynamite.
Others: Sofia Kenin (100-1), Ashlyn Krueger (100-1), Frances Tiafoe (100-1), McCartney Kessler (200-1)
The youngsters
ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (fourth round)
The big-hitting 19-year-old was one of the few men who actually took advantage of Jannik Sinner’s three-month spring suspension, charging past Fritz and Djokovic to win the 1000-level Miami title. He has gone just 8-7 since then (2-2 on grass), but the fundamentals of his game are strong, and a semi-friendly draw might give him a decent shot at a run to at least the fourth round.
ESPN BET odds: 300-1 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Holger Rune (second round)
He might not have the big-hitting upside of fellow teenagers Mensik or Joao Fonseca, but his lefty accuracy and often excellent service return make him a tricky out. And he’s strangely excellent against top players — he’s only 17-16 in 2025, but is 3-1 against top-10 opponents with wins over Medvedev (Australian Open), Zverev (Acapulco) and, on grass, Shelton (Mallorca). He could get a chance at a fourth top-10 win against Rune in the second round.
Others: Diana Shnaider (+5000), Marta Kostyuk (+6600), Linda Noskova (+6600), Joao Fonseca (100-1), Gabriel Diallo (100-1), Clara Tauson (100-1)
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