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David Schoenfield
We’ve started to see some top free agents come off the board as the MLB offseason has gotten rolling: Kyle Schwarber back to the Philadelphia Phillies, Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles and Dylan Cease to the Toronto Blue Jays. The closer market also moved quickly: Devin Williams to the New York Mets, Edwin Diaz then ditching the Mets for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Robert Suarez to the Atlanta Braves and Ryan Helsley to Baltimore.
That still leaves seven of the top 10 free agents from Kiley McDaniel’s top-50 ranking unsigned. Let’s look at that group and see where things stand. The team at the center of everything right now is the Mets: They have needs to fill and money to spend and will be a key player in how the rest of this offseason plays out.
We’ll list Kiley’s contract projections for each player — including updated projections for the four remaining big free agent hitters, based on how the deals for Schwarber and Alonso have reset that market. Then, of course, we’ll make some predictions that will certainly be correct.
2025 free agent ranking: 1
Initial projection: 11 years, $418 million
New projection: 11 years, $418 million (with potential deferrals)
Team that might be out: Phillies. The Phillies crossed off their top agenda item, re-signing Schwarber, and then filled a hole in the outfield with a one-year deal for Adolis Garcia. At the Garcia press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Phillies’ outfield is “pretty well set,” with Brandon Marsh in left field (at least against right-handed pitching) and rookie Justin Crawford getting the chance to win the job in center field.
What about the Mets? The Mets quickly replaced Alonso with Jorge Polanco, but they have holes in the outfield, where Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor and prospect Carson Benge are the current candidates to suit up alongside Juan Soto. The payroll is some $42 million below where it was in 2025, via Roster Resource at FanGraphs, but the Mets still need a front-line starting pitcher and bullpen depth.
Does the reluctance to give Diaz and Alonso long-term contracts preclude signing the younger Tucker? Not necessarily, but it’s clear president of baseball operations David Stearns is operating with a disciplined mission this offseason, focusing on upgrading the team’s defense and not getting trapped into longer deals that can quickly go awry. Plus, with Soto entering the second year of a 15-year contract, does it make sense to give another long-term deal to an outfielder? Probably not.
What about the Dodgers? The Dodgers could shift Teoscar Hernandez to left field and sign Tucker to play right field, especially with the payroll about $43 million below where it was in 2025. But do the Dodgers believe that much in Tucker to give him a megadeal? At some point, they do need to weave some younger position players into the lineup — and their top prospects are all outfielders: Josue De Paula, Eduardo Quintero, Mike Sirota and Zyhir Hope. Tucker on a shorter deal with a higher AAV might work if a longer one isn’t out there for him.
Prediction: Blue Jays. The Jays are doubling down on their World Series appearance so far, signing starters Cease and Cody Ponce, who’s coming off Korean League MVP honors, as well as reliever Tyler Rogers. With George Springer in the final year of his deal, Tucker can be viewed as Springer’s replacement in the outfield (with Anthony Santander as the DH). The Jays also have a lot of other money coming off the books after 2026 (Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Myles Straw and Yimi Garcia). Including Springer, that’s $78 million, so they can absorb the long-term implications of a Tucker deal.
2025 free agent ranking: 2
Initial projection: 6 years, $168 million
Team that might be out: Blue Jays. With Bieber exercising his player option and then the Jays signing Cease and Ponce, the rotation looks settled for 2026.
What about the Mets? Last offseason, Stearns tried the second-tier route to fix the rotation, signing Sean Manaea to a three-year, $75 million deal, Clay Holmes for three years and $38 million, and Frankie Montas for two years and $34 million. It didn’t exactly work. Holmes was fine, but Manaea had a 5.64 ERA in 12 starts while Montas made just seven starts and the Mets released him after the season. Given that Mets starters ranked 27th in the majors, let’s see if Stearns swims in deeper waters this time and signs the top starter out there, one who has averaged 192 innings the past four seasons. But does Stearns have the appetite to sign a pitcher for longer than three years? Reports seem to suggest the answer to that question is no — and that a trade is more likely.
What about the Orioles? Signing Alonso shouldn’t prevent the Orioles from going after one of the top remaining starting pitchers. Indeed, after signing Alonso and trading for Taylor Ward (a free agent after 2026) the urgency to win now has only increased. The payroll is $22 million below 2025’s $160 million. Is that enough room to sign Valdez? A more likely option might be a starter just outside the top 10 free agents, such as Ranger Suarez or Michael King.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs. The Cubs need a top-of-the-rotation starter, a guy they feel more confident handing the ball to in a playoff game than they did with Matthew Boyd or Shota Imanaga. They also have the payroll flexibility to do it, sitting about $22 million below last season’s total.
2025 free agent ranking: 3
Initial projection: 6 years, $165 million
New projection: 6 years, $180 million
Team that might be out: Cincinnati Reds. Not that the Reds were ever in on Bellinger, but they were in on Schwarber. Even though Bellinger fits a need in the outfield, the Reds’ interest in Schwarber was apparently only due to ownership’s belief the Ohio native would help sell tickets.
What about the New York Yankees? It has been a quiet offseason so far for the Yankees, but general manager Brian Cashman reiterated at the winter meetings that the Yankees still want Bellinger back after a stellar 5.1-WAR season in the Bronx. While they don’t necessarily want to give up on Jasson Dominguez, there is still plenty of room for Bellinger, especially since he can play center — which allows New York to hedge against Trent Grisham regressing from his surprising 2025 numbers. Bellinger could also fill in at first base or play right field when Aaron Judge needs a DH day.
Prediction: Mets. Stearns is clearly emphasizing defense — bringing in Marcus Semien to play second base and ditching Alonso. Bellinger fits in that regard, especially in left field, where he would be a plus defender, and he can handle center as well. The Dodgers could be in the mix here as well, but that outfield hole for the Mets is glaring. If they aren’t going to sign Tucker and if they’re not willing to give a long-term deal to a pitcher, Bellinger is the best fit for them at the top of the market.
Would the Mets give Bellinger a bigger contract than the one Alonso received from the Orioles? Bellinger is only a year younger, but over the past three seasons he has averaged 4.0 WAR while Alonso averaged 3.1
2025 free agent ranking: 4
Initial projection: 5 years, $160 million
New projection: 5 or 6 years, $170 million
Team that might be out: Detroit Tigers. Bregman and the Tigers felt like the perfect match last offseason when Bregman was a free agent, but Buster Olney recently reported on an episode of the Baseball Tonight podcast that negotiations turned a “little bit nasty” last year, making it less likely for a match this time around.
What about the Mets? This was a popular prediction at the outset of free agency, but the Mets now seem committed to Brett Baty at third base. Bregman’s age — he’s entering his age-32 season — also makes him a risky bet, and Stearns is clearly anti-risk.
What about the Cubs? The Cubs went hard after Bregman last season and there have been reports of interest once again, even though Matt Shaw played much better in the second half of his rookie season (.258/.317/.522).
Prediction: Boston Red Sox. In the end, a return to Boston still makes the most sense. The Red Sox went after Schwarber and Alonso, and they need Bregman’s right-handed bat to help balance out the lefty-heavy lineup.
2025 free agent ranking: 5
Initial projection: 6 years, $135 million
Team that might be out: Dodgers. After initially declaring he wants to take the Dodgers down, Imai has doubled down on his desire to beat the Dodgers — not join them. “With the number of pitchers they already have, they don’t need me,” he told a Japanese news outlet. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow told MLB Network Radio on Sunday that he spoke with Andrew Friedman, and the Dodgers’ exec told him, “You’re not going anywhere.” Seems like the Dodgers will stick with their rotation.
What about the Mets? If the Dodgers are out, Imai landing with a big-market East Coast team certainly feels like a strong possibility. But, there’s still the issue of whether Stearns will give a pitcher a long-term deal — and Imai is expected to get five or six years.
What about the Yankees? Imai has until Jan. 2 to sign, so this could happen any day. The rotation isn’t really a need for the Yankees — they finished fourth in rotation ERA in 2025 without Gerrit Cole, who should be back at some point in the first half of the 2026 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2025. But they are undoubtedly looking at all of the Dodgers’ Japanese starters with envy, plus there are rumors of the Yankees going after a starting pitcher (such as a return engagement with King).
Prediction: San Francisco Giants. The Giants are going to be in the mix for several of these top guys — Tucker, Bellinger and the pitchers. Heck, if Imai wants to beat the Dodgers, how about joining a team where he can face them four or five times a season? The Giants’ payroll is only $8 million under 2025’s total, but that 2025 figure was about $30 million below 2024. They have room to pay, they need a starting pitcher and Robbie Ray is a free agent after 2026.
2025 free agent ranking: 7
Initial projection: 5 years, $130 million
New projection: 5 years, $150 million
Team that might be out: Braves. With the one-year deal given to Ha-Seong Kim for $20 million to return to Atlanta, where he played 24 games at the end of the season, the Braves would seemingly be out on Bichette. They have Kim at shortstop, Ozzie Albies at second and Mauricio Dubon in a utility role.
What about the Mets? Bichette’s age — he’s entering his age-28 season — makes him the kind of free agent that might be more attractive to Stearns, although the Mets have their double-play combo set with Francisco Lindor and Semien. But what about Bichette moving to third? His range at shortstop is subpar anyway, and that was before the knee injury in September. Executives love his high-contact rate that should translate well to October baseball — and he would make for a terrific No. 3 hitter behind Lindor and Soto. Baty would then become trade bait for pitching or outfield help. Don’t sleep on this one.
What about the Blue Jays? A return certainly fits, with Andres Gimenez taking over at shortstop and Bichette sliding to second base on a permanent basis. But do the Jays have an appetite to sign both Tucker and Bichette? They do also have other infield options, with Addison Barger playing third base after splitting time between third and right field in 2025 and Ernie Clement playing second on a full-time basis.
Prediction: Yankees. We’re trying to read the tea leaves here and those Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade rumors keep popping up. Perhaps the Yankees are trying to clear space for a new infielder? Bichette could either provide another option at shortstop to Anthony Volpe, who struggled at the plate in 2025 and saw his defense regress as well, or play second, with Jose Caballero still around to back up both positions.
2025 free agent ranking: 10
Initial projection: 5 years, $80 million
Team that might be out: Mets. Murakami and the Mets were linked early on, but given Stearns’ defensive emphasis and the signing of Polanco to play first base — where many scouts believe Murakami is best suited to play — there doesn’t seem to be a clear fit, unless the Mets turn him into a full-time DH (and Mark Vientos is still around for that role or could share it with Polanco).
What about the Red Sox? The Red Sox have obviously been on the prowl for a slugger and Murakami’s power potential is huge — although it will come with a lot of swing-and-miss. If the Red Sox are tired of Triston Casas’ continued injury issues, Murakami is a fit at first base. His age — he turns 26 in February — also makes him attractive, despite the strikeout risk.
What about the Seattle Mariners? At the winter meetings, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said the Mariners were still interested in adding one more hitter. That obviously won’t be re-signing Polanco. They’ve been mentioned in trade rumors for Brendan Donovan and Ketel Marte. But what about keeping their prospects and just signing Murakami to play third base and DH? The Mariners might not want to add another strikeout-prone hitter, but if the bidding for Murakami does fall below nine figures, maybe they get in the mix.
Prediction: Chicago White Sox. Murakami’s deadline to sign is Dec. 22, so we’re running out of time. His market still seems wide open. The Phillies could also be an interesting fit, or maybe the Los Angeles Angels want to do something. Indeed, if any of these top 10 free agents land in a surprising spot, Murakami might be the one. The White Sox have money to spend — their current estimated payroll is just $68 million and that includes $20 million for Luis Robert Jr., who might be traded. They have a desperate need for power and Murakami fits at either third or first, depending on where Miguel Vargas ends up. This would be a nice roll of the dice for a White Sox team that looks to be on the rise.
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