SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart… In what has been a heavy-loaded horror year, every other studio seemed to be winning with the genre except Blumhouse. Until now: the horror house of Purge & Five Nights at Freddy’s finally makes a comeback this weekend with Black Phone 2 which in its opening is ahead of its predecessor with a 3-day of $24.4M.
The sequel throughout last night continued to trend up against comps, which is a great sign for a horror film. A -22% ease from Friday today is expected with $8.3M. That’s better than the first Saturday of 2021’s Black Phone which declined -26% from Friday with a $7.5M take. Overall CinemaScore is a B, which is very good for a horror film on that exit poll’s scale. In ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak, women under 25 (who showed up at 22%) loved the R-rated movie the most at 85% postive score and 76% definite recommend along with 13-17 year olds (12% more than Tron:Ares‘ 6% last weekend) who gave it an 88% positive score and massive 83% definite recommend. Overall definite recommend, the barometer for success on PostTrak, is a great 63%.
Audiences are picking up Black Phone 2 in the West, Midwest and South Central. Shared PLFs with Tron: Ares are driving close to a third of the gross with the AMC Burbank the nation’s highest grossing cinema with close to $31K so far.
Keanu Reeves as Gabriel and Sandra Oh as Martha in Good Fortune. Photo Credit: Eddy Chen
Eddy Chen
The weekend’s other starry wide entry, Lionsgate’s Good Fortune, which at net $30M cost as much as Black Phone 2, ain’t faring well with an estimated $6M (we’re still waiting on the studio’s figure). B+ CinemaScore, and a pretty good 59% definite recommend, but nobody is going. At a time when we want comedies to truly make a return at the box office, this Keanu Reeves, Seth Rogen, Aziz Ansari feature isn’t calling the masses out despite good revies at 78% certified fresh and a 77% audience score. The film, an homage to movies like Warren Beatty’s Heaven Can Wait, is playing ala an arthouse movie, on the coasts. Largely guys over 25 (42%) and women over 25 (39%) with hardly anyone under 25 at 19%.
With a 166 million reach across TikTok, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, and X, Good Fortune‘s social media universe is paced 13% behind other comedy norms, RelishMix comping the Ansari directed movie to Naked Gun, Caught Stealing, Joy Ride and Honey Don’t. Rogen counts 24.5M social media followers, Keke Palmer is 23.2M, with full force from Ansari at 11.9M. Reeves is still off the grid for his films. As far as the sniping online, RelishMix noticed “Mixed-negative leaning chatter for Good Fortune hits on recycled looks, AI vibes, and some misplaced casting. Keanu’s Wick-hair-and-beard fatigue is real with complaints like, ‘You’d think Keanu would change his look for this movie. Instead it’s John Wick with costume store wings. Looks lame to me.’”.
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FRIDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: Blumhouse is looking at its biggest opening year-to-date after four movies with Black Phone 2, which is shaping up for a $23 million start after a Friday and previews of $10.1M at 3,411 sites.
After an autumn of lost hopes, thank God. That’s $600,00 lighter than the 2021 first installment’s opening, and we’ll take it.
Giving the Universal release some extra power are 1,000 exhibitor PLF screens as well as 170 AMC-only Dolby Cinema screens.
Second place goes to Disney’s Tron: Ares at 4,000 sites with a 65% second-weekend decline, steeper than the movie’s pre-Covid comp Blade Runner 2049, which was down 53% in its weekend 2. The Jared Leto movie’s three-day is $11.5M, and its second Friday is $3.3M. The 10-day running total by Sunday will stand at $54.9M, 10% behind Blade Runner 2049 at the same point in time and -37% behind 2010’s Tron: Legacy (its 10-day was $87.3M) which had the beneficial bounce of Christmas.
Third belongs to Lionsgate’s Good Fortune at 2,990 theaters, with $2.5M today and bad fortune at $6M for the net $30M feature.
Warner Bros’ fourth weekend of One Battle After Another at 2,532 sites is seeing $3.8M over Friday-Sunday and $1M today, for a running cume by Sunday of $61.7M.
Fifth is Paramount/Miramax’s Roofman at 3,370 with a second Friday of $1.1M and a second weekend of $3.65M (-55%), for a 10-day total of $15.4M.
Angel Studios is opening the Matt Whitaker-directed WWII period movie Truth & Treason at 2,088 theaters to $2.2M for the weekend after $1M today. The plot: One teen risks everything to expose the truth as he questions his loyalty to his German homeland. With the Gestapo closing in, he must decide what it really means to be a good German.
PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: Universal and Blumhouse’s Black Phone 2 dialed up $2.6 million in previews Thursday at 2,900 theaters from showtimes that began at 2 p.m. That’s just under the $3M the original 2021 movie pulled in before bowing to $23.6M.
Black Phone 2 previews are in line with that of Paramount’s Smile 2, which opened in the same weekend a year ago with $2.5M in previews and a three-day total of $23M.
The hope is that Blumhouse, after seeing a lackluster streak in a horror-laden box office year for the industry, can actually get a break and post an opening that’s robust. The Scott Derrickson-directed sequel is figured to land between $20M-$30M. Reviews are solid at 74% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. The first Black Phone was 81% with RT critics and had a B+ CinemaScore.
The setup for Black Phone 2 is that Ethan Hawke’s The Grabber is out there in the real world, not holed up in some neighborhood house in 1970s suburbia. Watch out. Production cost for Black Phone 2 is net $30M.
After the less-than-par opening for Disney’s Tron: Ares, and sophisticated adult movies in free-fall (I’m sorry, One Battle After Another is the exception and faring better at a near $58M than everything in its wake, i.e., Roofman, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, Caught Stealing, etc.), it’s doldrums time at the autumn box office, though according to ComScore for, from Labor Day through last Sunday, the season is flat with a year ago at $770.7M. It would be nice to finally see a movie meet its tracking forecast.
Meanwhile, Lionsgate has the comedy Good Fortune, directed by and starring Aziz Ansari along with Keanu Reeves and Seth Rogen. It’s expected to ring up under $10M at 2,985 locations. The movie cost a net $30 million in line with other Lionsgate movies; the pic, you’ll remember, was impacted by a start-and-stop with the writers and actors strikes. Coming out of its TIFF world premiere, Good Fortune is 79% fresh. Previews last night were $725,000 at 2,500 sites. Note that Roofman, another adult-skewing (largely guys, ironically, for a Channing Tatum movie) title last week, did $1M in previews before posting an $8M start.
Check out our interview below with Ansari at our TIFF studio:
Disney’s Tron: Ares ends the week with $43.4M, a number many were hopeful the net $180M production would open at. This movie is pacing slightly behind another Jared Leto sci-fi property, also with a finite fan base, 2017’s Blade Runner 2049, which posted a first week of $45.4M. Blade Runner 2049 with an A- CinemaScore held at -53% in weekend 2 with $15.4M, and Tron: Ares is expected to be steeper with -60% off its B+ CinemaScore. Tron Ares will keep the Imax and majority of PLFs and their great showtimes this weekend.
This week’s top 5
- Tron Ares (Dis) 4,000 theaters, Thu $1.5M (-20% from Wed), Week $43.4M/Wk 1
- Roofman (Par) 3,362 theaters, Thu $567K (-23%), Week $11.8M/Wk 1
- One Battle After Another (WB) 3,127 theaters, Thu $545K (-19% from Wed), Wk $10.1M (-38%), Total $57.9M/Wk 3
- Gabby’s Dollhouse (Uni) 3,049 theaters, Thu $192K (-8%), Wk $5.2M (-21%), Total $28.2M/Wk 3
- Conjuring: Last Rites (NL/WB) 2,334 theaters, Thu $195K (-25%), Wk $4.36M (-24%), Total $173.8M/Wk 6
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