Wall Street’s blistering three-month rally on cooling trade tensions will be put to the test this week. It’s an exceptionally light week of economic data and earnings releases, which means every little piece of information investors do get will be magnified. Against that sparse backdrop, President Donald Trump ‘s trade policy ahead of a long-awaited deadline will likely be the dominant market story of the week. The S & P 500 enters this pivotal period at record highs and up 26% from its tariff-driven closing low on April 8. 1. Tariffs: What is going to happen with tariffs before Wednesday, when Trump’s 90-day “reciprocal” tariff pause is set to expire and the steeper, country-specific duty rates announced in the Rose Garden on April 2 take effect? That is the question on many investors’ minds, particularly after what appears to be mixed messages from the Trump administration. Trump said Tuesday that he was “not thinking about” extending the tariff pause beyond July 9. A baseline tariff of 10% has been in effect on most U.S. trading partners during the 90-day negotiation window. The question took on greater salience early Friday, when Trump told reporters the U.S. was going to start sending out letters to countries informing them of their new tariff rates. “We have more than 170 countries, and how many deals can you make?” Trump said. “They’re very much more complicated.” Trump said the U.S. might still strike a couple more deals with trading partners, according to Reuters. Throwing more questions in the mix, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday tariffs will “boomerang” back to April levels by Aug. 1 for countries without deals. During an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Bessent said Aug. 1 was not a new deadline. “We are saying this is when it’s happening, if you want to speed things up, have at it, if you want to go back to the old rate that’s your choice,” he said. Indeed, Trump adviser Peter Navarro’s suggestion that the administration would ink ” 90 deals in 90 days ” has thus far not panned out. The U.S. has made just a handful of trade announcements since the April 9 tariff pause. The U.S. has agreed to a trade framework with China that saw both sides reduce tariff rates and lift other retaliatory measures. Washington also struck a deal with the U.K., which took effect June 30 . Last week, Trump unveiled some details of an agreement with Vietnam, which he said will grant U.S. exporters more access to that market, while Vietnamese imports into the U.S. will be subject to a 20% tariff — below the 46% “reciprocal” tariff rate Trump threatened in April. A potential deal between the U.S. and India is one that investors are watching closely, particularly after Reuters reported negotiators from both sides were pushing for a deal. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday had a big story on disagreements between Washington and Tokyo that are complicating talks with Japan. Additionally, South Korea’s president, Lee Jae Myung, said Thursday he wasn’t sure whether the country would solidify a deal with the U.S. ahead of the Wednesday deadline, according to the Associated Press . It remains to be seen how the market will trade as Wednesday nears. But recent history suggests the more positive headlines on tariff agreements there are, the better it will be for sentiment. At the same time, investors cannot rule out the potential for volatility if Trump’s rhetoric heats up at all — similar to what we saw last week when he abruptly called off trade talks with Canada over its digital services tax, which weighed on stocks in the June 27 session. It proved to be a short-lived spat after Canada U-turned on the tax proposal, but the flare-up illustrates the fact the market doesn’t have tunnel vision on trade. While investors without a doubt are positioned for more good news, there could be fits and starts along the way. Trump’s comments on the tariff letters over negotiating deals underscore that possibility. That’s especially true with an S & P Short Range Oscillato r north of 8%, signaling very overbought conditions. Any tough talk on trade from Trump could lead to an outsized reaction in the market. A lot of money was made very quickly since the April lows, so plenty of investors and traders could be looking for any reason to book profits. We’ve done exactly that in recent days and Jim Cramer suggested on Thursday’s Morning Meeting that we may even look to do more profit-taking in big winners come Monday. If we get a big positive open on Monday, that would push us even further into overbought territory, which could be an opportunity for members looking to raise cash to do just that. On the geopolitical front, we’ll also be keeping an eye on whether there’s any progress on resolutions to the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars. While these haven’t been major market-moving stories lately, various headlines on ceasefire talks surfaced last week. Trump had planned to speak to Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Thursday. 2. Earnings: While there are no Club names reporting, there are three reports to note. Delta Air Lines and Conagra Brands , the owner of Healthy Choice, Hunts and other food brands, on Thursday morning will offer insights into the health of consumer spending. More specifically, Delta will tell us about the appetite for travel and what role, if any, the weaker U.S. dollar has had on international trips. Conagra also will likely touch on inflationary pressures in the food and commodity complex. Levi Strauss on Thursday night will also offer a checkup on the consumer, as well as tariff and supply chain commentary. Consider these three earnings reports the calm before the second-quarter earnings season really picks up the following week when we begin to hear from the biggest U.S. banks. Week ahead Monday, July 7 No earnings or economic releases of note Tuesday, July 8 NFIB Small Business Index at 6 a.m. ET Federal Reserve’s consumer credit report for May at 3 p.m. ET Wednesday, July 9 Federal Reserve meeting minutes released at 2 p.m. ET Census Bureau’s monthly wholesale trade report for May at 10 a.m. ET Thursday, July 10 Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: Delta Air Lines (DAL), Conagra Brands (CAG), Simply Good Foods (SMPL), Helen of Troy (HELE) After the bell: Levi Strauss & Co (LEVI), WD-40 (WDFC), PriceSmart (PSMT) Friday, July 11 Treasury Department’s Monthly Treasury Statement at 2 p.m. ET (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) 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